Africa’s waste could fly planes globally

From the newsletter

Africa’s sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market is beginning to take shape as global decarbonisation policies create new demand for low-carbon aviation fuels. South Africa’s Sasol has secured certification to export SAF to Europe, while Egypt has attracted a $200 million Gulf-backed investment for a SAF project alongside a long-term offtake agreement with Shell. 

• SAF is produced from feedstocks such as used cooking oil, waste oils and biomass, offering a lower-carbon alternative to conventional jet fuel. 

• Africa is emerging as a potential SAF supplier to global markets due to abundant waste and biomass feedstocks, though scaling production will depend on processing capacity, certification and reliable feedstock systems.

More details

• Sasol’s International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC+) onsite audit covers the production of SAF and renewable diesel through the co-processing of used cooking oil and vegetable oils. The move positions the firm to shift from exporting feedstocks to producing and exporting higher-value SAF locally. Meanwhile, the $200 million SAF project in Egypt’s Ain Sokhna region is expected to produce up to 200,000 tonnes annually of biofuels, including SAF,with commercial operations targeted for end of 2027. 

• Policy is emerging as the primary driver of SAF markets globally, particularly where it creates guaranteed demand. In Europe, regulation such as the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation framework is accelerating adoption by mandating increasing SAF use in aviation, with blending requirements rising from 2% in 2025 to 70% by 2050. At the same time, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) is targeting net-zero carbon emissions for aviation by 2050, reinforcing pressure on airlines to secure lower-carbon fuels. 

• Aviation currently accounts for roughly 3% of global carbon dioxide emissions, making it an increasingly prominent target for decarbonisation as other sectors reduce emissions. Yet SAF currently accounts for less than 1% of global jet fuel consumption, highlighting the scale of the supply gap. 

• However, Europe’s ability to meet this demand domestically is constrained. Limited availability of sustainable feedstocks such as used cooking oil, alongside competing demand across SAF, biodiesel and renewable diesel markets, has tightened supply and increased reliance on imports. As a result, European markets are increasingly looking outward for feedstock and finished fuels, creating opportunities for emerging suppliers. This dynamic is already visible in the export of used cooking oil from countries such as South Africa to Europe for processing into SAF. 

• Recent disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz have also exposed the vulnerability of global aviation fuel supply chains. Jet fuel prices have surged sharply amid supply concerns, with airlines cutting flights and warning of higher operating costs. While SAF remains too small to offset near-term disruptions, the crisis is reinforcing the strategic importance of diversifying aviation fuel supply through alternative and locally produced fuels. 

• Africa is beginning to position itself within this emerging market. The continent generates significant waste and biomass feedstocks, including used cooking oil, agricultural residues and organic waste streams that could support SAF production. A WWF study estimates that South Africa alone has the technical potential to produce up to 4.5 billion litres of SAF annually under strict sustainability conditions. Beyond South Africa and Egypt’s latest project, early-stage initiatives are beginning to align with growing global demand for SAF. This momentum is being reinforced through initiatives led by the African Development Bank, the European Commission and international aviation bodies, which are positioning multiple African countries as potential SAF producers.

• Translating this momentum into meaningful value capture will depend on whether Africa moves up the value chain from feedstock supplier to processor. This will require localising conversion infrastructure, aligning with international certification standards and using policy tools, certification frameworks and long-term offtake agreements to anchor domestic demand and market access. Even proponents acknowledge that scaling SAF production remains a long-term undertaking requiring significant infrastructure, regulation and investment.

Our take

• Africa’s competitive advantage in SAF lies in its abundant agricultural and waste feedstocks, but scaling production will require major investment, stronger regulation and reliable supply systems capable of meeting international standards. 

• While SAF presents a new industrial opportunity for Africa, questions remain around the long-term implications of scaling fuel production in regions already facing food security pressures, particularly where agricultural feedstocks compete with food production.